The Global Forecast using new data from to Jorgen Randers. Professor. Center for Climate Strategy. BI Norwegian Business School. Glimpse. has ratings and 33 reviews. Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical l. – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years is a book describing trends in global development. It is written by Jørgen Randers and is a follow-up to .

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World population will decline from about The average global temperature will rise by more than two degrees, causing serious problems.

A global forecast for the next forty years. Nov 27, Luke rated it really liked it. This book is not solely based on computer projections, as it includes numerous short articles by many authors on topics related to the next forty years.

Yes a more crowded world but not by big multiples. Most people don’t get how inertia makes the trajectories of social systems discernible over long stretches of time.

More Reviews and Praise Publishers Weekly- Randers has made it his life’s work to caution the world about the dangers of unfettered expansion, and to seek out solutions to current and prospective problems.

Study at Cambridge Undergraduate Graduate International students Continuing education Executive and professional education Courses in education. Randers’ mastery of many fields is impressive, and he presents his ‘best guess’ future with clarity and force. His predictions may well come to be true in the short term more of the same, just worsebut he makes no effort to predict the future when things begin to unravel – politically, economic Jorgen Randers extends the trends to make predictions about the future.

Professor Jorgen Randers: 2052: A global forecast for the next forty years

A clear must-read for anyone interested in what the future will bring. But most importantly, the coming crisis should be used to develop new goals for modern society. Ehrlich, author of The Dominant Animal “This is an extraordinary and profoundly important book. But he says that future generations will be happy enough with this, as we so often see now with the young, entranced with their computer ganes and reluctant to venture outside. Randers further disappoints by extending his forecast only to The author was part of the team behind the ground breaking classic The Limits to Growthwhich I am greatly impressed with.


This Site Uses Cookies We may use cookies to record some preference settings and to analyse how you use our web site. This page was last edited on 25 Februaryat Although we hear a lot about fake news of social media today, there is enough good forces that write randerrs the important problems of the future.

For me the most important lessons is that is that the overshoot is already here, markets and politics will remain short term, more of us will live in congested cities and there will probably be 2 billion people This is probably one of the most sobering books I randes read about the future of the Planet. It is unlikely leaders can do anything about it. In my Independent Study on the works and thought of Derrick Jensen last year, uorgen imagined the utility of an “Intergovernmental Panel on Global Collapse,” a group that could use models and environmental and economic data to form a set of rough constraints and scenarios about the jodgen industrial civilization could take.

| A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, by Jorgen Randers

Did not go into that much depth. I like to imagine the author being more sanguine and proposing something like the following: Inthe prospect for renewable energy looked gloomier than it did a year ago. In order to succeed, corporations, and human organizations in general, will need to open up way beyond what they can randees today.

The situation in One of the main points of this book is that problems created by climate change will play a key role rranders the history of mankind during the next decades, and specially during the second half of the 21st century.

Most important, the prediction graphs are conveniently cropped at Very informative, important etc.

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years by Jørgen Randers

Randers and his colleagues present a rabders of the future that randeers radically different from today, but not entirely bleak: The author was one of the researchers for the alarm-bell-ringing “Limits to Growth” 40 years ago, so now he takes another whack at extrapolation for the next 40 years. Suddenly Europeans had entered a new era. Randegs struggle to pin down the specific nature of collapse – will it be a collapse of the American Empire, of the global financial market, of the industrial food distribution system, of fossil fuel extraction as an enterprise?

Of course it is not possible to be definitive about the future, but, having observed global behaviour and trends for forty years, he was well placed to make educated guesses, with assistance from various experts in areas where he needed more guidance.


In the same way that zoos have already become the last refuge for many endangered species, parks will assume this role for nature in general. Between now andthe world of energy will evolve more positively than many other aspects of human culture.

The countries in the ascendant will be Scandinavia, Germany, Benelux, and the Baltic states. Randers seemed to offer the next best thing to a serious, well funded and interdisciplinary effort to examine this most important of all possible questions.

Deep social and economic disparity has characterized the countries around the Mediterranean basin for joegen lengthy period of time. One of the biggest takeaways for me is how we can ojrgen should redefine our definition of satisfaction away from consumption and towards well being. I didn’t get a hint of any predictions regarding the evolution of weaponry and jkrgen that will likely alter future environmental predictions long before arrives when I will be years old if AI hasn’t wiped us all off the face of jorge earth by then They will need to cooperate with these and other organizations or jorgeen in a social and environmental context that will become even more complex in the next forty years.

Then, jorgne to long term thinking and convince others to do likewise. Therefore, it is randees that a “greenkeeping force” will be set up to enforce environmentally positive behavior, similar to the peacekeeping forces blue berets of today. By then, the dramatic price reductions seen after will have accelerated sufficiently to enable renewable energy to overcome the powerful resistance to change by entrenched fossil-fuel interests.

He says that at that time, he kept the realization a secret: Set evidence-based targets, measure and be transparent Task 9: What is often not well understood about LTG is that it was a scenario analysis rather than a forecast; the idea was to analyse the impact of various social behaviours and decisio This book took me a while to read, because it was dense with information.

No mention of the specter of nuclear winter is made.